The Economist has projected President Bola Tinubu to win the 2027 presidential election, citing Nigeria’s complex electoral dynamics, a divided opposition and signs of economic stabilisation despite persistent insecurity and economic challenges.
In its latest edition, the British publication observed that Nigeria’s “complicated electoral dynamics” could favour the incumbent president as political parties intensify preparations for the 2027 general elections.
The Economist acknowledged that Tinubu’s economic reforms, particularly the removal of the fuel subsidy, have contributed to some signs of economic stability. It highlighted falling inflation, increased government revenue and improving investment activity as developments shaping the country’s economic outlook.
However, the publication noted that insecurity remains a major challenge, particularly in northern Nigeria, where persistent violence and security concerns continue to affect communities.
The Economist also described the opposition as fragmented and disorganised, suggesting that the absence of a united opposition platform could influence the distribution of votes in the forthcoming election.
Citing Joachim MacEbong of political risk consultancy Control Risks, the publication stated: “Because it’s not a united ticket, that anti-APC vote is not coalesced into a single vote.”
It further reported that some residents in Maiduguri were unfamiliar with the other presidential candidates, apart from Tinubu, highlighting concerns about opposition visibility and political awareness in parts of the country.
PIG Projects APC Ahead of ADC and NDC in 2027 Election
In a separate projection, the Political Intelligence Group (PIG) of Politico.ng has placed the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) ahead of its major rivals, the African Democratic Congress (ADC) and the National Democratic Congress (NDC), in its October electoral map.
According to the assessment, the APC is projected to lead in 19 states, while the NDC is assigned 10 states and the ADC eight states.
PIG explained that its October electoral map represents a snapshot of Nigeria’s political landscape based on developments available at the time of the assessment. The projection follows several political developments in September that could influence party alignments and electoral calculations ahead of 2027.
Among the developments highlighted was the reported denial of entry into Benue State involving Peter Obi, one of Tinubu’s prominent political opponents.
The group also considered the controversy surrounding Tinubu’s working vacation, which sparked public debate over the president’s absence from Nigeria.
Additionally, former Vice President Atiku Abubakar’s continued focus on the fuel subsidy issue and what the group described as a sudden political turnaround were identified as factors in the evolving political landscape.
The projections reflect the group’s assessment at a particular point in time and do not represent actual election results.
North-Central APC Targets Highest Votes for Tinubu in 2027
Meanwhile, APC stakeholders in Nigeria’s North-Central geopolitical zone have resolved to mobilise the highest number of votes across the country’s six geopolitical zones for President Tinubu in the 2027 general elections.
The decision was reached during a planning meeting of the North Central Grassroots Mobilisation Movement held at the Office of the Secretary to the Government of the Federation in Abuja.
The meeting brought together governors, political appointees, party leaders and other stakeholders from the six North-Central states and the Federal Capital Territory (FCT).
The stakeholders also fixed October 10, 2026, for a major political rally in Lafia, Nasarawa State, as part of efforts to demonstrate their support for Tinubu’s re-election campaign.
Reading the resolutions after the meeting, APC National Chairman, Professor Nentawe Yilwatda, said party stakeholders had unanimously agreed to mobilise extensively across the region in support of Tinubu’s candidacy.
Yilwatda stated that the North-Central was determined to deliver overwhelming support for the president in the 2027 general elections.
He explained that the proposed rally would attract APC members and supporters from Benue, Kogi, Kwara, Nasarawa, Niger and Plateau states, alongside the FCT.
According to the APC chairman, the rally would demonstrate the region’s solidarity with Tinubu and communicate its intention to contribute a substantial number of votes to his re-election campaign.
APC Plans Grassroots Mobilisation and Medical Outreach
Beyond the planned rally, the North-Central APC stakeholders approved a series of grassroots mobilisation activities, including medical outreach programmes and advocacy tours across the region.
Yilwatda disclosed that the stakeholders had agreed to establish a reconciliation committee to address internal disagreements and bring aggrieved party members together ahead of the elections.
He said the committee would work towards resolving grievances within the party and consolidating support for Tinubu’s 2027 presidential bid.
The APC national chairman also announced plans for another meeting the following week to strengthen preparations for the Lafia rally and other mobilisation activities.
Earlier, Secretary to the Government of the Federation, Senator George Akume, who serves as Grand Patron of the North Central Grassroots Mobilisation Network, said the organisation was established specifically to mobilise votes for the Tinubu-Shettima ticket in 2027.
Akume identified three major components of the mobilisation strategy: a grand rally in Lafia, medical outreach programmes and grassroots advocacy tours featuring town hall meetings across the region.
He explained that the advocacy campaign would cover the 19 senatorial districts across the six North-Central states and the FCT, with the aim of engaging communities, party members and grassroots supporters.
The medical outreach programme is expected to provide comprehensive eye screening and treatment, refraction services, prescription spectacles, cataract assessments and selected cataract surgeries where facilities are available.
Other proposed services include glaucoma screening and diabetic eye examinations, targeting vulnerable residents and people with limited access to healthcare.
APC to Establish Reconciliation Committee Ahead of 2027
The North-Central APC leadership also placed emphasis on internal reconciliation as part of its preparations for the next general elections.
Yilwatda said the proposed reconciliation committee would help address disagreements among party members and unite different factions behind the party’s presidential candidate.
The mobilisation programme was developed by the movement’s National Coordinator, Arch. Sonny Echono, and his team, with endorsement from the APC National Secretariat.
During the meeting, Echono presented the proposed work plan, outlining activities and strategies for mobilising party supporters across the North-Central region.
Nasarawa State Governor and Chairman of the Movement, Abdullahi Sule, also provided guidance on the priorities of the mobilisation campaign.
Other notable attendees included former Plateau State Governor Senator Simon Lalong, Minister of Information and National Orientation Mohammed Idris, and several government officials, party leaders and senior APC members.
The mobilisation strategy is expected to combine political reconciliation, rallies, grassroots advocacy and social intervention programmes as the party prepares for the 2027 elections.
Tinubu’s 2027 Re-election Campaign Gains Momentum
The Economist’s projection, PIG’s October electoral map and the North-Central APC mobilisation plan highlight some of the political developments shaping preparations for Nigeria’s 2027 presidential election.
While the Economist points to the ruling party’s incumbency and opposition fragmentation as factors in its projection, the APC’s North-Central stakeholders are organising rallies, outreach programmes and reconciliation initiatives to strengthen support for Tinubu.
Nevertheless, insecurity, economic conditions, opposition party alignments and developments during the campaign period remain important elements of Nigeria’s evolving electoral landscape.
The projections by the Economist and PIG are assessments rather than confirmed outcomes, with the final result to be determined by voters when the 2027 general elections take place.